Book Brief: Active Hope by Macy and Johnstone

An excellent guide to personal resilience

I have taken part in workshops led by both Joanna Macy and Chris Johnstone, and regard them as two of the best teachers on personal resilience in a full sense of the phrase.  This book is a clear, concise guide to their approach, and has the authority and richness that comes from their many years of teaching.

Their work is known by various names, including Deep Ecology, and the Work That Reconnects.  It draws from a range of sources, including Buddhist teachings and general systems theory. 

One of their key ideas is that there are three ‘stories of our time’, and it is empowering to name them, and choose the one we live by:

-          Business as Usual: this is the story that governments and business would like us to trust in them.  There’s nothing basically wrong, and a bit more economic growth and technology will sort things out soon.

-          The Great Unravelling: worsening climate change is only one of several huge problems which show that the world is falling apart and it’s too late to save it.

-          The Great Turning: whilst this story is less visible in mass media it is already happening in many ways across the globe.

To some extent, all three stories are happening, but only the third one encourages us to act and believe we can make a difference.  The book highlights three Dimensions of the Great Turning:

·         1. Holding actions: this means actions to reduce or stop the damage caused by Business as Usual to the climate, ecosystems and lots more. Whilst some of the big changes need to come from government and business, we can change our own lifestyle, and participate in campaigns, boycotts and more.

·         2. Life-sustaining systems and practices: in every sector, including banking, food and transport, sustainable approaches are already available.  Individuals can choose to make such changes now.  But it requires big changes to spending priorities and to the patterns of Business as Usual, which will require much wider popular pressure on governments.

·         3. Shift in Consciousness: this is a sense of belonging and connectedness with all life on Earth.  As we deepen this, it brings a sense of urgency, and a passion for positive change. 

Much of the book is about how to achieve this change in consciousness, and act upon it. Central to this is a four-stage process which Joanna and Chris have evolved over years: I have led it with several groups, and found it very effective. This process, the Work that Reconnects, recognises that many people feel pain and distress at the state of the world and the way things are going, but don’t know how to handle it, so deny it, stuff it down, which keeps them in tension and inertia.

Their four-stage process offers a safe, supportive way to help people face their pain, move through it, and find ways to engage actively with positive change. The process is described in the book, but is best done in facilitated groups, since witnessing and support from others is a key element.

 

The book has a whole chapter on each of the four steps in this process, plus valuable chapters on such topics as Catching an Inspiring Vision, Building Support around you, and Maintaining energy and enthusiasm. Unlike some books in this sector, this one is well written, and pretty concise at 238 pages. The passion, wisdom and huge experience of both authors shines through, and I can wholeheartedly recommend it. It gracefully interweaves large perspectives, wisdom from great teachers, real-life examples, and self-help exercises.

Living our future out : brilliant insights

This is a situation where I’m delighted to admit to bias: I have loved The Who and their music since they exploded into my life in the Sixties. I have regarded Pete Townshend as a genius since Tommy, and his book, Who I am provides ample support for my view.

One of my favourite verses in Quadrophenia runs:

I have to be careful not to preach,

I can’t pretend that I can teach,

And yet I’ve lived your future out

By pounding stages like a clown.

Peter Townshend really has lived out many of the major issues around resilience, and this book is a superb description of his shipwrecks and re-inventions, embodying many of the insights and approaches offered in my book, Out of the Woods: A Guide to Life for Men Beyond 50.

I’ve recently become intrigued by the extreme pressures which hit successful pop musicians, as a result of seeing the brilliant film about the Congolese group Benda Bellili – but that’s for another blog. Pop stars need even more resilience than the rest of us: we may not want them as role models, but we can learn from them.

Pete describes these pressures vividly: the abundant booze and drugs, and the gorgeous women throwing themselves at him. Plus the pressure on him, as the songwriter in the group, to keep creating fresh hits. And the chaos in a quartet of half-crazy personalities, on tour for weeks on end.

He writes very honestly of his heavy drinking, of his underlying ongoing anger, and his work addiction “I was a workaholic, running away from the present, and probably the past ... I was myself a really desperate man”. These shipwrecks forced him to dig deep to find his own resilience: “To mature properly, I needed to reach back to my lost youth, the eight-year-old I still carried within me”.

Some people suggest that the underlying crisis of resilience is a spiritual one, and this is echoed by Pete describing his own “deep, nauseating spiritual desperation”. He describes the profound benefits he has found through the teachings of Meher Baba. Overall, I’d rate Pete as  pretty resilient, mature operator in a context that sends many pop musicians crazy. Another fascinating aspect of Who I am is the range of Pete’s musical influences: For example, he writes about Purcell’s use of elongated suspensions, which he used himself in ‘The Kids are Alright’, and how one of my Sufi inspirations, Inayat Kahn, gave him ideas for Lifehouse.

The stories of Pete Townshend and The Who are interwoven with many other great groups and musicians, including The Rolling Stones, Jimi Hendrix and Eric Clapton. This book has plenty of vivid scenes, involving all these and more. I rate it as a must-buy!

The New Road: Charting Scotland’s Inspirational Communities

This book does what it says on the cover!

by Alf Young and Ewan Young, Argyll Publishing

This is a truly encouraging book, delightfully written, in the form of a one-week rail and road trip around Scotland, seeing what’s new and working well in raising community resilience. It has just the right amount of practical detail and atmospheric colour.

I also appreciated the way this book has a light touch on editorial, and mostly lets the people and their projects do the talking. The overall picture that emerges has been an important part of my conclusions about how the community resilience sector works in the UK currently. Here are some of my key conclusions, which this book supports:

Transition Town, Forres

·      - There are good working examples of raising resilience in most key aspects (e.g. food, energy, employment), but… these are rarely replicated.

·      - They usually involve an innovative, practical initiative in a physical local community, with a lot of human interaction, and they have deepened the quality of community in that locality.

·      - They were led by and for local people, but mostly initiated and driven along by one or a few superhuman people, pioneers who persisted despite huge obstacles.

·      They often depended on unusual funding sources - for example, raising funds from the community itself, even poor ones, or a brief window when grant funds were available.

·      They managed to engage the hearts, fire up the motivation, overcome the scepticism, of many people in their local community, and gain fairly widespread support and active involvement.

Here are a few of the authors’ perspectives:

Gal Gael, Govan

“For communities to take more responsibility for their own destinies requires an unbelievable amount of hard work...Not just ...the small numbers of people trusts can afford to employ.  Especially from the countless volunteers...”.

“it often feels as if each community setting foot on this new road has to redraw, from scratch, the map that will shape its journey.”

“to prosper in the long-term, we believe all trusts may have to turn themselves into social enterprises of genuine scale”.

Here are some of the specific projects featured in the book:

Dunbar: Artisan bakery, community owned and funded.  The umbrella organisation is a Community Development Trust, which grew out of a local consultation.

Twechar: A rundown former mining village took over the leisure centre from the local authority when it was due for closure, and has made it a real community hub.

Burntisland: Mike Small and the Fife Diet.  It started with communal meals of local produced in the village hall.  Funded by the Climate Challenge Fund.

Fintry, nr Stirling: Development Trust raised funds (from 50% of all local adults) to invest in part of a local commercial wind farm: after 2022 when capital repaid should generate £0.5m annual income.  Also car club and many other community facilities.

Govan, Gal Gael: Centred on a workshop teaching physical skills, eg building traditional boats.  Pioneered a 12 week programme for local young people, ‘Navigate Life’: craft skills and field trips into nature. Thursday evenings open house: music, food, company.

Neilston, south of Glasgow: Development Trust led by a dynamicc local woman: created a Town Charter with 44 project aims by 2030.  Funding a key issue - the 44 would cost £15m or more.  Raised money to buy a share of a local windfarm, will bring in £0.5m per annum from 2018.

Renton, West Dumbartonshire: locals created a Community Housing Association: has refurbished rundown social housing, built mixed tenure new homes, and created a new, 40-apartment, extra care facility for local older people.  It has also created, rented, then sold a successful 3000 square feet retail unit, and has built a new Healthy Living Centre, and a community centre (cafe, sports, meeting rooms).

Comrie, Perthshire: Set up a development trust, bought a redundant military camp with 96 acres - now includes food growing by local people, small business spaces, sports etc.

Forres: Transition Town Forres: Carin Schwartz, ex-Findhorn, a prime mover.  Innovative community allotment.

Sleat, Skye: Sleat Community Trust: took over the petrol station after it shut down, it’s now also the local post office and visitor info centre.  SCT has also bought the 1000 acre Tormore Forest nearby: provides a long-term revenue flow.  The purchase was backed by Highlands & Islands Enterprise Trust, and Triodos Bank.

Eigg: The islanders bought the island.  Have set up their own energy supply company, 90% renewable sources.  It also has a forest business, and a 24-bed luxury hostel and outdoor centre.

Cancel The Apocalypse: book by Andrew Simms Useful, informative and sometimes annoying...

In the Smart Thinking section of a Waterstones, this is one of numerous large, mostly worrying books about the future. I was persuaded to buy this one by its optimistic title, and my good opinion of the author. Andrew Simms is a Fellow of the new economics foundation who has contributed to some good innovative thinking over the past twenty years.

This book has a lot of useful information, insights and piercing statistics about why things are as bad as they are, on many fronts: world economics, banking, food, and lots more. Simms is familiar with a lot of good research and resources, which are well referenced here. But he also rambles and digresses: the 250-page version of this book would be more readable and useful than the actual 474 pages. Some of the many useful insights in the book include:

• Wellbeing vs. Materialism: Simms cites extensive research on the qualities that give most people a sense of wellbeing, alongside depressing evidence that the most materialistic don’t have these qualities, and many systems in developed societies push against them.
• Finance: He explains recent meltdowns clearly, tries applying a natural systems analogy to world finances, and describes a few smaller-scale alternatives.
• Food: He provides strong evidence for the vulnerability of food and fuel supply chains, highlights the role of speculation in driving up consumer prices even further, and provides evidence that food production could be organised to feed the world, given numerous radical changes. He quotes strong evidence to support his doubts about GM, and comments that ‘other non-GM techniques look set to bring dramatic crop improvements.’
• Pay, performance and inequality: Simms adds to the conclusions in the book The Spirit Level that societies with more unequal incomes have many related problems, and even the rich are less happy. He adds some interesting points to this: for example, a wide-ranging research survey which found no evidence that higher pay engenders higher performance, and in fact suggests it can be counterproductive. He also points out that employment is one of the primary drivers of inequality in societies like the UK.
• Advertising: The section on advertising is incisive, with quotes from industry gurus stating that the basic purpose of all this spending is to undermine people’s confidence and independence, and goad them into consumption.
• Cooperation: Simms is eloquent on the many benefits of more cooperative and egalitarian societies, and believes that it’s in human nature to be like this – the problem is simply that our dominant global systems all push in the wrong direction.
• Poverty: His assessment is pretty depressing: for example, if one takes China out of the figures, there has been no reduction in the numbers of global poor from 1980 to 2010. He also points out that the level of trickle-down from world economic growth to those in absolute poverty is tiny and shrinking: from $2.20 per $100 of global economic growth in the 1980s, to $0.60 in the 1990s.

I found it annoying that over 90% of this book is devoted to a range of specific issues, in which the problems are described at length, along with a variety of potential solutions, but mostly potential ones: to be more specific, he quotes details of positive initiatives which are working well somewhere, or bright ideas, but gives very little clue on how all this could be propagated in the mainstream. I became increasingly curious as to what the pivotal final chapter would contain.

Sadly, as with many of these books, Simms has little that’s new or convincing to say about how the large-scale economic, political and social structures of the world or the UK could be transformed into the more localised, collaborative, human approaches which he advocates. His suggestion that we all try to re-invent our sense of place and of time is a good start, but inspiring more than a small minority to do even this seems hard to imagine...

The Great Disruption: Book by Paul Gilding. A useful guide to constructive pessimism

The key message of The Great Disruption that although the world’s eco-systems (and hence economies) are going down the tubes rapidly, the crisis can be resolved if radical, concerted action is taken within the next few years, as Gilding believes it will be. 

Paul Gilding comes with impressive credentials: he has been executive director of Greenpeace Australia and International, and later worked as a consultant with large multinational businesses.  His book is generally well-argued and well-researched, but with a few blindspots: see more later.  Gilding says that, “Every major grouping of qualified scientists that has analysed the issue comes to the same conclusion” regarding climate change: that we are in a major crisis, which can only be resolved by dramatic cuts in human pollution. 

He draws a useful distinction between focussing on what is necessary  to resolve a problem, not what is politically possible; and he makes a strong case that what is really needed is to limit global temperature rise to 1^o C above pre-industrial levels. 

Gilding explains that he got much more attention from business audiences when he spoke about economic impacts, not environmental.  The global economy already puts more demands on the planet than it can sustain, and this is continually exacerbated by population growth: hence he believes the world has to face a fundamental crisis soon that continued economic growth is simply not sustainable.  We have to readjust to a steady state economy.

Gilding points to 2008 as an example of how this will happen in practise: in that year, economic growth led to resource shortages in food, energy and commodities, which produced big price rises, which then deflated the economy.  He expects this cycle to continue until fundamental systemic changes are made.

Whereas many experts, such as James Lovelock and Richard Heinberg, believe the global eco-system is broken beyond repair, Gilding disagrees, and his book includes modelling which he undertook with Professor Jorgen Randers to model how climate change could be pulled back to a one degree rise.  He believes this would require a war footing, with radical initiatives by the governments of major countries around the world, and he quotes World War II as a relevant precedent.  For example, his model includes rationing electricity, forced reductions in air travel, limiting use of gas-guzzling cars, and massive investments in renewable energy.  His model assumes that the ‘One Degree War’ starts in 2018, and that by then, climate changes impacts will become so severe that they force a tipping point in public opinion and government action.  I really hope he is right.

In a chapter titled ‘Are we finished?’, he says, “The attitude we adopt...hope versus despair – is perhaps the most profound issue we will face.  I think it will be more influential on our future than technology, politics or markets.”  He believes that a key to getting beyond denial of a problem is belief that a solution is possible.  Whilst his book helps somewhat, it leaves lots of questions unanswered, and I believe there is huge work urgently needed both to figure out in detail how solutions could work, and then to publicise this. 

Gilding sees two main phases in the big changes ahead.  The first will be government-directed, focussed on climate change.  The second phase is where the end of economic growth will be confronted.  Gilding quotes the book The Spirit Level and other surveys which show that average annual incomes above $15,000 per year do little to increase happiness, and that even the richest people are happier in societies with smaller income differentials. 

In the latter sections of his book, I find numerous blindspots and Utopian thinking: for example the belief that because of this research, governments worldwide will reduce differentials and both nationally and internationally, thus ending world poverty almost at a stroke.  Although the global economy may become steady state, differentials between countries will continue to change, and these tensions are not considered.  Gilding assumes that declining average incomes will be handled smoothly by everyone working part-time, which looks naively optimistic.

The Great Disruption, the One Degree War, and whatever follows it will have absolutely massive impacts socially and economically, which are hardly touched on in this book.  It would be good to see much more detailed consideration of the adverse impacts and how to mitigate them, and with the positive impacts, and how to encourage and accelerate these.  Gilding observes that the skills of personal and community resilience are now urgently needed, and this book gives at least brief glimpses of the impacts those skills will have to cope with.

Film 'Waste Land' : Learning resilience from the bottom of the heap

This film is about rubbish pickers in Brazil, at the largest landfill site in the world.  You may not be surprised to know that the pickers are the bottom of the heap in social position: many hide the work they do even from their families.

Waste Land depicts a project by Vic Muniz, an internationally famous photographer and artist from poor origins in Brazil, now living in the US.  He spends a year working with some of these pickers, creating art from blown-up photos of the pickers, embellished with the very rubbish they pick.

Essentially the pickers are paid by private companies to sift through mountains of smelly rubbish and pick out materials that can be recycled.  We soon realise that the pickers understand the environmental value of the work they are doing.

Through the film you get a touching sense that the pickers, over 2500 of them, have evolved a resilient and supportive community in this physically hellish setting.  One man tells how he nearly died when the tailgate fell off a garbage truck, and thirty fellow-pickers gave blood to save his life.

Despite a lot of scepticism, the pickers formed a co-operative which has successfully campaigned to improve their conditions, and stop children doing this work.  They have even set up a library, stocked by books found in the rubbish.

Although the pickers know they are looked down on by society, they are proud of what they do.  Several point out that it’s an honest, positive way to earn a living, unlike the drug dealing and prostitution which are rife in the favelas (shanty towns) where they live.

This tip could easily be a scene of competition, as pickers vie for the rubbish that has value.  Yet the film gives a strong sense that the pickers look out for each other, share the spoils, and have a sense of order in a setting that is so hideous it could provoke anarchy and desperation.

If people at the bottom of the heap can be so cheerful and resilient, surely the rest of us can learn from this?

Can Britain feed itself?

A community market garden in Bridport

Rising world population, switch to Western diets by the affluent and developing countries, increasing climate change impacts causing major crop failures: these are three of the major factors which have driven substantial, real price increases in most foodstuffs in recent years, all pressures which are likely to intensify in future.  If you couple this with Britain’s poor economic and employment situation, you’d think that increasing our food self-sufficiency would be a no-brainer.

As far as I know, there’s not much current debate on this topic, especially in the mainstream.  So I’m pleased to report some useful insights from The Land Magazine, a really useful twice-yearly publication giving insights into farming, planning, and many other land-related issues: I highly recommend subscribing to it: you can see more at www.thelandmagazine.org.uk.

The latest issue has a 5-page article on this topic, with helpful quantitative analyses and references.  This quotes data from DEFRA (the Department for Environment, Farming and Rural Affairs), who calculate the percentage of foodstuffs that could be grown in the UK, which actually are.  This ratio has been declining every year since 1988, and reached an all time low of 71.7% in 2009, recovering slightly in 2010 to 74.4%.

Ed Hamer’s article provides two detailed calculations of how Britain could be largely self-sufficient in food production.  The first scenario draws on an earlier article in The Land by Simon Fairlie, called Can Britain Feed Itself, published Winter 2007-8.  Key to Simon’s scenario is a significant change in diet, to a more (but not entirely by any means) vegetarian diet.  In particular, pig and poultry production is taken out, but beef and sheep production actually increases.  Assuming current, conventional farming methods and yield per acre, this scenario shows that we do have the land area to feed a population of 62.3 million people. 

This article also references a useful publication by Vicki Hird, published by The Food and Environment Alliance, London: Double Yield, Jobs and Sustainable Food Production, which covers similar ground, with similar conclusions.

The second scenario takes largely the same diet and production requirements, and explores whether these could be provided by entirely organic methods. The yields, labour requirements, etc come from sources which should be reliable, eg DEFRA and Soil Association Studies.  They show that all this could be produced organically on 16.7 million hectares, which compares to the current agricultural land area in the UK of 18.2 million.  The biggest difference is in the labour requirement: around 330,000 people, compared to around 159,000 currently.  This is a great example of a figure which could be good news or bad, depending how you look at it. 

Given current levels of unemployment, and the hidden costs (pollution, land degradation, etc) of conventional farming, I see this as an exciting possibility.  Yes, it does imply that food prices would be somewhat higher, but they will be anyway given the trend in world prices, not to mention the costs of oil and therefore fertilisers and pesticides.  There are also various creative ways to keep the cost of this additional labour modest.  Quite a lot of the production may come from community market gardens, volunteers, trainees, horticultural therapy and more.

How long will it be until we get an informed debate about these possibilities?

This guest blog, written by Konstantinos Todoulos, originally posted on the Jubilee Debt Campaign website, offers an impressively clear picture of the real story behind the Greek debt crisis.

Top 5 questions about the Greek debt crisis

With the Greek debt crisis still dominating the headlines, Konstantinos Todoulos answers 5 frequently asked questions.

"The Greek crisis is the result of trying to shield bankers and bondholders while asking workers, retirees and taxpayers to pay the bill" (Dani Rodrik, economist, Harvard University)

1) What is the current situation in Greece?

The Greek external debt (money owed to international lenders) is around €356 billion, the debt-to-Gross Domestic Product (GDP) ratio currently stands at 161.8%. It is projected to go up to 172% by the end of 2011 and 194% by 2012 - that is over €370 billion euros. By comparison, the UK's debt-to-GDP ratio is 89%. The economy has suffered greatly, both in terms of industrial production and services, with the GDP reduced in the years 2010-2011 and with many enterprises and businesses closing down or drastically cutting down on activity and personnel. Official calculations reveal that the economy is currently contracting by 8.5% of GDP - down from 10.5% in 2010 - but short of the 7.6% target set by the EU and IMF in return for emergency loans. The threat of impending default on payments triggered capital flight, as a fifth of all bank deposits by big capital holders have been directed to 'safer' banks mainly to Switzerland and Germany. Taxation on big capital and financial institutions is fairly low, as big capital holders and enterprises have been largely ignored from the recent taxation spree. At the social level, the official unemployment rate is at 16.4%, with over one million people unemployed in a country of 11 million. The Greek labour market is scourged by informal, seasonal and flexible work, as job availability has been drastically reduced in the private sector and the government pledged to hire only one new employee for every 10 that retire in the public sector. The youth of Greece, who are generally skilled and highly educated, suffer a lot in these conditions: unemployment for the ages 18-24 is at a record 35%, house ownership is not an option for the majority and many are considering migration as a solution. This depression creates all sort of problems in daily life, from a rise in destitution and poverty to psychological problems and a rise in suicide rates.

2) What has been done so far?

The International Monetary Fund (IMF), the European Union (EU) and the European Central Bank (ECB) jointly formed an unofficial body nicknamed the ‘Troika’, in order to resolve the Greek debt crisis. They offered to lend €110 billion last year in tranches (installments) at intervals of several months, with evaluation of the implementation of economic reforms demanded in response.

The Troika has already provided loans for the payments of the loan interests and support of the bank system of €65 billion in 5 tranches since May 2010. It agreed at the Eurozone summit on 21 July 2011 to give another €109 billion euros within the next few years. At the same time, they decided on a reduction or ‘haircut’ of the debt by 21% and institution of the EFSF (European Financial Stability Facility), a permanent fund for future guarantees provided for countries in the Eurozone. However, efforts to limit the deficit and restore development have proven futile, as the global financial crisis has made matters worse. The measures not only did not produce positive results but weakened Greece and made it a liability for the whole Eurozone. The scale of European banks' exposure to Greek bonds is such that a collapse in the Greek banking system would endanger the whole European economic structure. That's why on 27 October a new deal was reached, involving a ‘haircut’ of 50% on private debt, in return for the Greek government pushing the austerity policies even harder. However, this is still not enough to tackle the underlying problems with the debt burden, and may itself now face the uncertainty of a referendum.

3) Who and what are responsible?

The Greek debt crisis has been attributed by the mainstream European media to the bloated public sector of Greece and the ‘reckless’ spending of the people who allegedly worked less, had big holidays and consumed more than they could afford. The Greek public sector however, in terms of public sector workers to total work force is fairly low compared to other European countries (11.4%), being 14th in the list of 17 Eurozone countries. As for the 'laziness' claim, the truth is that the Greek people are at the top of Europe in terms of working hours. According to figures released last year by EUROFOUND, Greeks work on average 1,816 hours per year, way above the 1,659 hours of Germans and the European average of 1,708 hours per year. The debt boom started as soon as Greece joined the euro currency in 2001. Cheap credit flowed from the stronger economies within the Eurozone to the periphery (countries in the southern and eastern Europe), allowing rapid expansion of banks and direct investment in activity that benefited from the extremely favourable taxation policies and loopholes in legislation that facilitated tax evasion. The European Union has clauses that prevent lending to a country when its debt to GDP ratio is over 60%, but chose to overlook this commitment in the case of Greece. The European banks and states had no inhibitions in continuing loan provision to Greece, even though the debt soon exceeded 100% of the country’s GDP. Along with Greek capital holders and businesses, they are directly responsible for the debt crisis. Furthermore, a series of corruption scandals, and low taxation for big capital and enterprises played a crucial role in limiting public funds. The Greek public administration has been plagued by corruption and political interference - almost always in favor of the same entrepreneurial interests. A big percentage of the latest booming of public expenditure came from consistently high military spending. France and Germany have been arms trade partners with Greece and have sold military equipment worth billions of euros to Greece over the years. Lastly and most importantly, the bank bailout packages and guarantees were the final blow to public finances. In 2008 the Greek banks received €28 billion and last year another €30 billion, money covered by the Troika loans which were denied from vital functions of the state such as welfare, education and healthcare.

4) What are the austerity measures?

All efforts up to now to limit the deficit have been in vain, despite the draconian Structural Adjustment Programmes imposed on Greece as a condition of emergency loans that went by the names of 'Memorandum' and ‘Mid-term Stability Program’. These programmes have been revised at least four times, always with the addition of stricter measures. The current government, along with the supporters of the Troika intervention, have consistently faced the public with the dilemma ‘Memorandum or default’. This is a recurring theme in every twist and turn of the crisis and the ruling party has exhausted this rationale on the repeated attempts to limit debt with austerity and contracting consumption. They claim a possible default could decimate purchasing ability and may make the Greek state unable to pay pensions and wages. The IMF revealed that it aims to significantly lower the public reallocation expenditure to below 35%. It has called for lower wages, cutting public sector salaries by a fifth, slashing pensions by 20%, 30,000 redundancies in the public sector, privatization of state owned industries, a new severe tax on property and higher VAT among many others. Most of the welfare provisions in terms of pensions, healthcare, and education have been severely affected. A further source of income was supposed to come from the issuing of new licenses for professions such as pharmacists, lawyers and truck drivers, but was met with fierce resistance, especially from taxi drivers. As expected, these measures have not only failed to generate more revenue, but have also put the public treasury in constant threat of default and reliant on further loans and every public service in danger.

5) What are the alternatives?

The sustainability of a 50% cutback of the otherwise unpayable debt would still not constitute a permanent solution, as the austerity measures already in place ensure that the drag on the economy will be long and painful. High interest rates from the international market will make it very difficult or even impossible for the Greek economy to rebound and if the austerity measures persist, living conditions and purchasing power, which dropped significantly over the last 18 months, will drop even further. The real question is not when a re-scheduling of the debt will happen, but on whose terms and what that would mean for ordinary people. Since the beginning of the crisis, the Greek people have resisted the austerity measures that were imposed on them by the PASOK government. The resistance has spread to all parts of the society, with a total of 14 general strikes since the beginning of the Troika intervention, square occupation movements (the Aganaktismenoi or 'Occupy' movement) similar to Spain and Egypt, public buildings and university occupations, civil disobedience campaigns around the denial of paying the new taxes and broad initiatives for the cancellation of the country's debt. Along with the strong opposition by movements and the reactions from trade unions and students, a serious attempt has been initiated to establish a Debt Audit Commission.

Concerns have been raised about the legitimacy of the loan deals and the terms imposed for those loans.

The effort is based on the democratic and constitutionally enforced right for the people to know about and have a say in the finance of the country. The main goal through their declaration would be to indicate “the odiousness of the debt and the political responsibilities for its creation, as a means of forming appropriate proposals for tackling the debt crisis”. This audit would benefit from the cooperation of economists, professors, lawyers, activists and debt experts. Based on the findings the Commission would give evidence and support to initiatives for ‘opening the books’ of public finance, the expulsion of the Troika and questioning of the nature of the external debt. The Greek crisis is still unfolding and the coming months will show which side will win the argument on how the country will get out of the crisis.

Featured on Jubilee Debt Campaign’s website: http://www.jubileedebtcampaign.org.uk/Top372053720questions3720about3720the3720Greek3720debt3720crisis+7289.twl

Capitalism at Risk: Joseph Bower. Even big business feels the need for change

It takes four hours by bus and train from my home in Bridport to central London.  The first time I’ve gone to London just for an evening was to hear Joseph Bower speak about his book, and see the response.  It was worth it.

Professor Joseph Bower is a heavyweight at Harvard Business School, sits on big-Company boards and all the rest of it.  His new book, Capitalism at Risk, grows out of forum sessions with top business leaders, in the US and internationally: these were held in 2007-8, before the financial crash, which many of these leaders foresaw.

In his talk, Bower briefed us on the concerns of these top business leaders, and played us video clips.  Income inequalities, and a backlash, from populist movements and the middle classes, were a top concern.  As one leader put it, “Even in the slums, people have TV: everyone can see how each other lives.”

Bower showed some striking figures about the big increases in inequality in the past 20 – 30 years, especially in the US and UK.  At one point in discussion, he tried the old line that when the poor get a bit richer, their concerns disappear, but even he could not sustain this in the face of the inequality issue.  He had no convincing answer, but voiced hopes that big business would clean up its own act, perhaps under pressure from shareholders.  This is happening occasionally in the UK now, but apparently not in the US.

Other concerns for these business leaders included: failure of the rule of law, growth of radical movements, environmental degradation and global warming, failures of public services like health and education, and state capitalism.  As Bower said, China may now use a form of capitalism, but it plays by very different rules than Western capitalism, and he sees conflicts as likely.

Joseph Bower

A key part of Bower’s suggested response to many of these problems is concerted action by a widely-based coalition of businesses: thousands per country.  A model for this is CED, which involved over 10,000 UK businesses during World War II in plans to create employment when the armed forces came home.  He also cited Colombia, where business exerted leadership to pull the country out of drug-dominated anarchy.  Another part of Bower’s response was that many of these problems are a business opportunity if approached creatively.  The growth of mobile phone networks and their inventive uses in rural areas across the world is one example.

This talk was hosted by the Harvard Club of London, with plenty of Business School alumni.  The response from the audience was somewhat muted and bewildered: it felt like no one had answers to issues of this magnitude.  There was certainly no flicker of a coalition of business leaders about to emerge.
One ray of hope which I see is the recent pushbacks from shareholders on excessive pay at the top.  If charities, ethical funds, universities and other big institutional investors started to collaborate to use their influence and define some standards, it could be a powerful move.

FutureScapes: Scenarios for 2025. Technology, sustainability, virtuality ...

FutureScapes is a recent collaboration of Forum for the Future, a leading UK sustainability charity, and Sony.  Their late 2011 report is available as a free download, but is work in progress, with public and organisations invited to join in its future evolution.

This work is not a prediction, but it is an interesting set of speculations, and they are built from four Climate Futures scenarios, helped by experts from academia and think tanks, as well as Forum and Sony.

Why your world is about to get a whole lot smaller... Peak oil is more real and alarming than you want to think!

Jeff Rubin's book

This 2009 book is by Jeff Rubin, who is apparently an independent authority on the oil industry.  He was Chief Economist at CIBC World Markets (a North American investment bank), who is consulted by oil producers, ie he’s not a greenie or militant.

Rubin is readable, clear and convincing.  He provides a lot of info I did not know before, to show why Peak Oil is here, and worse than most of us realise.  The biggest surprises for me were not about the lack of supply, but about the factors propelling continued growth in demand.

But let’s start with supply.  Rubin explains that oil producers, both sovereign states and organisations, have motives to overstate their reserves, as that boosts their prestige and bargaining power.  However, he broadly accepts the Hubbert Curve forecasts, and offers plenty of evidence to support them.  For example, he explains that in depleted oilfields, the output ratio of natural gas to oil rises, and this is now true in Saudi Arabia.

He is horribly interesting when explaining what economists call the rebound effect.  This means that a big rise in oil prices typically leads to rises in efficiency of use, but these lower the real cost (of car or air travel, for example) which then actually stimulates consumption.

Whilst oil consumption per dollar of GDP in OECD countries has reduced impressively, Rubin gives some big and alarming reasons why the growth elsewhere in the world is growing rapidly:

• Most oil producing countries are committed to providing unlimited cheap oil to their own population, meaning US$ 0.25 per gallon!
• These low oil prices are also applied to electric power generation, desalination plants, petrochemicals and more, which further boosts demand growth in oil producers.
• China and India, two huge and fast-growing economies, are heavily subsidising their domestic petrol prices at below world price levels to assist economic growth.

Jeff Rubin

The disappointing part of Rubin’s book is about the consequences.  He’s convincing that rapid oil price rises are unavoidable, and he expects economies to become more localised as transport costs rise.  As he says, this implies serious economic contraction for many developing countries which have depended on cheap oil.  He comments, ‘How all this will affect our culture is a topic for others to explore in depth’… Let’s hope those others speak out soon.